منابع مشابه
Conditioning and the Sure-Thing Principle
This paper undertakes a careful examination of the concept of conditional probability and its use. The ideas are then applied to resolve a conceptual puzzle related to Savage’s “Sure-Thing Principle.”
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We study a version of Harsanyi’s theorem (Harsanyi, 1955) in a framework involving uncertainty. Without assuming the sure-thing principle but sticking to consequentialism, we obtain that a Paretian social aggregation should be affine and that all decision makers must use additively separable preferences that resembles expected utilities. Whenever preferences are state independent, we find that ...
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Savage (1954) introduced the sure-thing principle in terms of the dependence of decisions on knowledge, but gave up on formalizing it in epistemic terms for lack of a formal definition of knowledge. Using a standard model of knowledge, the partition model, we examine the sure-thing principle, presenting two ways to capture it. One is in terms of knowledge operators, which we call the principle ...
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Savage (1954) introduced the sure-thing principle in terms of the dependence of decisions on knowledge, but gave up on formalizing it in epistemic terms for lack of a formal definition of knowledge. Using simple models of knowledge, we examine the sure-thing principle, presenting two ways to capture it. One is in terms of the union of future events, for which we reserve the original name—the su...
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In expected utility theory, risk attitudes are modeled entirely in terms of utility. In the rank-dependent theories, a new dimension is added: chance attitude, modeled in terms of nonadditive measures or nonlinear probability transformations that are independent of utility. Most empirical studies of chance attitude assume probabilities given and adopt parametric fitting for estimating the proba...
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Economics Letters
سال: 2017
ISSN: 0165-1765
DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2017.07.027